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Several scenarios are circulating for the year 2026. Under the Bayrou government, a “blank year” project was planned: no reassessment of basic pensions in order to save several billion euros.
Since the political changes, this idea has not been confirmed and remains a subject of debate. If the current inflation indexation rule remains in place, a moderate increase of approximately 1.2 percent could apply in January 2026, affecting the February payment.
Final decisions will be made in autumn 2026, when the budget and the law on financing social security are voted on.
A concrete example of the impact
- January 2025: +2.2% on the basic pension = approx. +€22 per month or €264 per year.
- November 2025: +0.6 to +0.8% on the surcharge = +3.60 to 4.80 € per month or 43 to 58 € per year.
In 2025, this pensioner will therefore earn approximately €310 to €320 more.
In 2026, a 1.2% increase in the basic pension would mean around €12 more per month, or €144 per year. However, should there be another “blank year” (a year with no increase), this increase would disappear.
Points of vigilance
- Risk of a bad year : Some politicians are still considering a complete freeze on basic pensions.
- Possible under-indexing : Even if there is an increase, it could be lower than inflation, leading to a gradual loss of purchasing power.
- Taxation : The 10 percent tax exemption for pensions could be revised, which would increase the tax burden for pensioners with incomes above certain thresholds.
- Real inflation : The main expenses of older people (energy, health, food) often rise faster than the official index, further widening the gap between statistics and actual reality.
In summary, 2025 will bring a moderate but significant appreciation, while 2026 remains a crucial year. Pensioners need to closely monitor upcoming budget announcements to anticipate the impact on their purchasing power.
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